From Ian:
16 injured, two badly, in apparent bus blast in Jerusalem
16 injured, two badly, in apparent bus blast in Jerusalem
At least 16 people were injured in a possible bus bombing in Jerusalem Monday afternoon.David Horovitz: Tunnel exposure means next Hamas war is a case of ‘when,’ not ‘if’
Initial reports indicated the number 12 bus exploded as it was passing near the Talpiot neighborhood in the southern end of the capital. The blast apparently set a second bus and a car nearby on fire. The injured were believed to be from all the vehicles.
Police said it was not clear if the incident was a terror attack. They were also not certain where the blast originated — on one of the buses, or in the car alongside.
“All avenues of investigation being followed,” a police spokesperson said.
An eyewitness told Channel 2 news that he heard an explosion before the fire.
So now, finally, parts of the story can be told.Does the discovery of a Hamas attack tunnel signal the approach of the next Gaza conflict?
The context to the IDF’s drill late last week, which simulated an attack on a kibbutz near the Gaza border by Hamas forces, becomes clearer.
The oblique references by senior Israeli officials to Hamas’s ongoing tunnel digging, made in television interviews and at public forums, resonate more seriously.
The assertions that Israel will fight the next war with Hamas on its terms, issued by IDF officers who cannot be named in briefings to local military correspondents, take on a more immediate significance.
Why? Because Hamas, the IDF finally confirmed for publication on Monday, has been tunneling under the border again. The nightmare of 2014, when troops discovered and destroyed some three dozen cross-border attack tunnels in the midst of a bitter war, is far from over.
As with those 100,000-plus rockets and missiles deployed by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon with only one address, the question of the next round of conflict with Hamas in Gaza — it must unavoidably be concluded — is not one of “if,” but rather, simply, of “when.”
According to all IDF estimates, with the outburst of a fourth Gaza conflict, Hamas will attempt to use tunnels to gain control of an Israeli border community and to hold it - at least for a short time - and to try to take hostages. In any event, IDF estimates also clearly see that Hamas will make great efforts to bombard the border communities in an attempt to cause the residents to abandon their homes, which would constitute a great achievement for them.
Despite all of the drama, the media blackout and the secrecy, it does not change the basic belief that Hamas is not interested in a further round of hostilities at this point, just as Israel does not want another war. From this standpoint, the deterrence which Israel achieved during the last war continues to hold.
Nevertheless, the fear persists that because of an error in judgement, or a miscalculation, the smallest incident is liable to escalate into a bigger conflict that spirals out of control. This is the great danger in the fragile situation on the Gaza border, especially given the dire economic situation of the Strip's residents, Hamas's diplomatic isolation and its relative military weakness.



















