Col Kemp: The West must call Iran’s bluff or face the devastating consequences
Neither the US nor Iran wants war. President Trump was elected partly on a platform that sought to end long-running US involvement in conflict in the Middle East and South Asia. Even if he wanted it he knows better than to engage in a major war with Iran in the run-in towards the 2020 presidential election. Following the traumas of Iraq and Afghanistan he also knows he would be hard-pressed to find allies to fight alongside the US.Shin Bet thwarts an attempted spy operation by Iran
As for Iran, the ayatollahs know the immense damage that would be inflicted on their country by war with the US. That alone does not deter them — they would be willing to exchange the lives of thousands of their citizens for the chance to give the ‘Great Satan’ a bloody nose.
But they also know the regime would not survive and to them that is supremely important.
If they don’t want war why are they provoking the US by attacking shipping in the Gulf? Re-imposition of US sanctions following President Trump’s withdrawal from Obama’s nuclear deal has hurt them badly. Even to the extent that they now fear for the survival of the regime.
Their aggression is intended to show Trump that his actions come at a cost for the US and the world, with 30 per cent of global oil supplies passing through these waters. It is also designed to deter him from pushing for wider imposition of sanctions including by European countries.
An important side benefit is the expectation that US retaliation against Iran, short of war, would help rally the people to the regime and ease growing internal dissatisfaction.
The Shin Bet (Israeli security agency) arrested a Jordanian citizen, originally from Hebron, under the suspicion that he was acting as an Iranian spy.
The 32-year-old Thaar Shafout was arrested and, under interrogation, confessed that he was a Jordanian businessman carrying out missions to promote the establishment of infrastructure in Israel, as well as Judea and Samaria, which would serve clandestine Iranian activities.
Shafout originally met two representatives of Iranian intelligence in Jordan – who acted under the aliases Abu Tsadek and Abu Jaafar – and had several more meetings met with them throughout 2018 in Lebanon and Syria.
Tsadek and Jaafar instructed the Shafout to establish a business infrastructure in Israel as a cover for future Iranian activity, as well as to recruit more spies within the country to assist in gathering intelligence. He was then instructed to make business connections in Israel and in Judea and Samaria.
Shafout made several contacts “in the field” so that they could assist him in his mission. He initiated the creation of a plant in Jordan that would hire Shi’ite workers and serve as an anchor for future Iranian activity over the border in Israel. The Iranian contacts agreed to give an initial investment of $500,000 to create the plant, as well as more later to establish operations in the field. The contacts also gave him encrypted means of communication in order to contact them.
Iranian intelligence, according to Shafout, intended to use him to transfer funds to terrorist contacts throughout Israel. They wished for him – once he finished carrying out all of the tasks for them in Israel – to come to Iran and finish his training as a spy.
UN nuclear watchdog denies plans to recognize Palestinian state
The International Atomic Energy Agency has denied reports it has signed an agreement recognizing "Palestine" as a country.
"The agreement, which was signed by the agency's director general Yukiya Amano and the Palestinian Ambassador in Vienna Salah Abdul Shafi, gives the IAEA inspectors the ability to check the safety of radioactive materials and fissile nuclear materials, such as uranium," according to a report in The Jerusalem Post, Wednesday.
In a statement, the IAEA said the agreement "does not apply any expression or opinion relating to the legal status of a certain authority or area or the definition of borders."
Although the PA does not possess any nuclear reactors, The Post noted that "it does have physics departments in hospitals and universities, which have medical equipment containing components of nuclear materials."
Although it isn't a member, the Palestinian Authority is allowed to attend meetings as an observer, according to an IAEA spokesperson.



















